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Are scenarios of energy demand in the building stock in line with Paris targets?
Verfasser / Verfasserin Kranzl, Lukas ; Aichinger, Eric ; Büchele, Richard ; Forthuber, Sebastian ; Hartner, Michael ; Müller, Andreas ; Toleikyte, Agne
Erschienen in
Energy Efficiency, 2019, Jg. 12, H. 1, S. 225-243
ErschienenSpringer Nature, 2019
DokumenttypAufsatz in einer Zeitschrift
Schlagwörter (EN)Scenario development / Climate mitigation / Building stock / Policies
URNurn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:3-5271 Persistent Identifier (URN)
 Das Werk ist frei verfügbar
Are scenarios of energy demand in the building stock in line with Paris targets? [0.77 mb]
Zusammenfassung (Englisch)

COP21 led to an agreed target of keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2 C compared to pre-industrial levels. Due to its high potential for decarbonisation, the building stock will have to contribute a reduction of at least 8595% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until 2050. Policy-driven scenario analysis is, therefore, important for assisting policy makers who are called upon to develop a corresponding framework to achieve those targets. The research questions of this paper are (1) Do long-term scenarios (in particular those labelled as ambitious) of energy demand in buildings reflect the COP21 target? (2) If not: What are reasons for the gap in terms of scenario assumptions, in particular, regarding the policy framework in the corresponding scenarios? The method builds on following steps: (1) analysis of GHG-emission reduction in scenarios from the policy-driven, bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab; (2) compare scenarios among each other and analyse if they are in line with Paris targets; (3) discuss possible explanations for any gaps and the implications on future modelling work and policy making. Results show that scenarios labelled as being “ambitious” for several EU MSs achieve GHG-emission reductions of 5696% until 2050. However, just 27% of these ambitious scenarios achieve reductions above 85%. The reason is that policies for most of the modelled scenarios were developed together with policy makers and stakeholders, whofor different reasonswere not willing to go beyond a certain stringency in the modelled instruments. In particular, this was the case for regulatory instruments, which show to be essential for achieving ambitious climate targets.

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