Increasing economic, ecological, and social pressure triggers automotive industry, politics and society to rethink the concept of mobility and yields the demand for a new model for mobility. An answer to this demand could be electric vehicles, as well as hybrid and fuel cell electrical vehicles. This work will provide an answer to the following question: How does the market of alternative car concepts develop under the influence of individual commodities? Three forecastig models, namely the demand model, the supply model, and the commodity model, have been developed between the poles of car concepts, commodities, and sales. Commodity prices scenarios, describing the complex dynamics of commodity price formation, but also considering unexpected trends, analyze the effect of commodity prices on the manufacturing costs. Firstly, in the demand model, a method is developed in which the sales of the individual car concepts will be appraised. The impact of the aforementioned sales results on the vehicles cost is evaluated in the second model, the supply model. The use of sale scenarios in the model enables to analyse not only the impact through commodity prices, but also of potential subsidies. Finally, the last model, the commodity model, investigates the impact of the sale of vehicles on the criticality of commodities. The outcome of the study point out that the influence of individual commodities is indeed given, but the entire costs must get reduced of the considered alternative car concepts for an sustainable sales performance. Furthermore, it has been shown that the available range and required charging time also have a decisive influence on sales. The commodities: rare earth, indium, gallium and germanium bear a high risk for the car industry.