Titelaufnahme

Titel
Error analysis of wind energy prediction models / Eni Ballauri
Weitere Titel
Modelierung der Unsicherheit von Windenergieprognosen
VerfasserBallauri, Eni
Begutachter / BegutachterinScherrer, Wolfgang
ErschienenWien, 2016
Umfangvi, 80 Seiten
HochschulschriftTechnische Universität Wien, Diplomarbeit, 2017
Anmerkung
Abweichender Titel nach Übersetzung der Verfasserin/des Verfassers
SpracheEnglisch
DokumenttypDiplomarbeit
Schlagwörter (DE)Windkraft / Prognose / Konfidenzbereich / GARCH
Schlagwörter (EN)wind power / forecast / confidence region / GARCH
URNurn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:1-93568 Persistent Identifier (URN)
Zugriffsbeschränkung
 Das Werk ist frei verfügbar
Dateien
Error analysis of wind energy prediction models [20.81 mb]
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Zusammenfassung (Englisch)

The importance of methods using renewable resources for the energy production has increased drastically in the recent years. In the electricity market the method that has grown most rapidly is the generation of power through wind. Forecasts of this power production are crucial. However, difficulties arise in these forecasts due to the high volatility of the wind and the complexity of the terrain where the wind facilities are installed. This thesis examines five different models for the forecast of wind energy and analyses the behaviour of its errors. The scope is to build a confidence interval for the errors of these forecasts. In this framework two major setups are considered for constructing a confidence interval. The first one is based on applying a GARCH model in order to forecast the conditional variance of the errors. The second uses a regression model to describe the absolute or square errors as a function of explanatory variables like the predicted wind speed and predicted wind power. These models were then used to build the confidence intervals. Both approaches were implemented sucessfully.