Valuation of a concentrated solar power project with real options and discounted cash flow / von Florian Schadauer
VerfasserSchadauer, Florian
Umfang68 Bl. : graph. Darst.
HochschulschriftWien, Techn. Univ., Master Thesis, 2012
URNurn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:1-55922 Persistent Identifier (URN)
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Valuation of a concentrated solar power project with real options and discounted cash flow [0.62 mb]
Zusammenfassung (Englisch)

Concentrated Solar Power is a exceptional renewable energy technology, owning to the fact that for a plant installed in the Earth's "sunbelt" the energy output is only subject to very little fluctuation, equal to fossil fuel fired power plants. This is the motivation to analyze the economic profitability of a plant modeled for North Africa and analyze the influence of a Feed-in Tariff on the profitability. The valuation is conducted via the application of two different methods: the Discounted Cash Flow method, to arrive at a net present value, and a Real Option analysis. Real Options can provide additional insight for projects that are subjects to high uncertainty and can valuate flexible decision-making. The real option method used is a binomial tree calculation. The Feed-in Tariff has a high impact on the profitability of the project. No Feed-in Tariff results in a net present value of minus 591 million Euros for a 200mw plant, and an option value of almost zero for an eight year waiting option. A Feed-in Tariff that is proportional to the Spanish regulation would result a net present value of 761 million Euros and an eight-year waiting option value of 1.066 billion Euros. Due to the high waiting value an incentive system for early investments is suggested.