Post grid-parity scenarios for the European photovoltaik market / von Stefan Schönegger
Verfasser / Verfasserin Schönegger, Stefan
Begutachter / BegutachterinHaas, Reinhard
Umfangviii, 48 Bl. : Ill., zahlr. graph. Darst.
HochschulschriftWien, Techn. Univ., Master Thesis, 2011
URNurn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:1-46679 Persistent Identifier (URN)
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Post grid-parity scenarios for the European photovoltaik market [1.33 mb]
Zusammenfassung (Englisch)

Global well known energy agencies around the world have continuously underestimated and talked down the growth rates of photovoltaic throughout the last decade. On the other hand is photovoltaic often praised by green activists and populist speeches of all political parties as the 'hope' for fighting against climate change. This thesis provides information on the actual limits of large scale photovoltaic roll out in the times of grid parity. It identifies industrial bottlenecks for further PV growth in the era of a general economic viability that doesn`t anymore rely on governmental support schemes. An introduction and evaluation of the complete supply chain from silicon feedstock to module production is followed by a scenario considering the pure demand without any restriction to identify the absolute theoretical maximum. In the next step these maximum scenarios are matched with the limits given by industrial production capacity, raw material feedstock, grid infrastructure and overall energy demand in Europe until 2020. Results show that neither the silicon feedstock, nor the production output or the widely expected grid capacity will be the limit. The share of PV in the European energy mix is limited only by the overall peak energy demand for day time and in terms of operating hours by the non-availability of storage options for daily, weekly and seasonal fluctuations in production through PV systems. For 2020, an estimated installed capacity of 183 GW is expected by the final scenario developed within this thesis. This is more than four times higher than forecasted by the World Energy Outlook 2010, published by the International Energy Agency.

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